ProfitOwl Research
Original research from public data. Working papers ship with their dataset and code; research notes link every source series. Each page states what it is and what was checked.
The first working paper, in figures
We test common claims about interest rates, debt and inflation against public data and date every verdict. Notes so far: US yields in 2026, who paid for inflation.
We rebuilt the behavior gap from 341,049 SEC N-PORT filings. Investors earned 8.97% a year; the famous gap hinges on one hidden share-class assumption.
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22354019
Four rules, applied to every project here. They are also the reason a paper takes months rather than an afternoon.
01
Public inputs only
Everything starts from filings and records anyone can obtain without a licence, a subscription or a relationship.
02
Working papers ship with data and code
Not on request — at the same time, in the same place. Research notes link every source series they use and say what is not published.
03
Versions are stated and logged
When a number changes, the page gets a new version and a dated changelog entry; earlier versions of a working paper stay on Zenodo. Silently updated figures are how a record becomes worthless.
04
Nothing here is peer-reviewed
Each page says so on its face. When something turns out to be wrong, the correction goes on the page that was wrong, marked and dated.
Found an error in any of it? Write to mail@profit-owl.com. A correction that arrives is worth more than a paper nobody checked, and it gets published on the page that was wrong.
