LTCM: How Two Nobel Laureates Nearly Broke the System
A fund run by Nobel laureates hit 250:1 leverage and lost $4.6bn in five weeks. The risk model that missed it still runs — inside your broker's margin system.
Series
The collapses that quietly built the system every investor uses today. Most finance content treats them as cautionary tales. This series treats them as pattern recognition.
5 episodes 5 written companions
12:32 Episode 1
Two Nobel laureates, a flawless model, and a fund that lost 90% in four months. What LTCM teaches about the tail risk no model can price.
12:03 Episode 2
Same off-balance-sheet trick, same audit pass, fourteen years apart. Why 'audited' does not mean safe.
10:27 Episode 3
A synthetic ETF does not own what it tracks. It owns a promise from a bank. Usually that is fine — here is when it is not.
10:40 Episode 4
A pension strategy designed to reduce risk nearly destroyed the UK bond market in 72 hours. How LDI turned safety into a margin call.
10:11 Episode 5
Swiss authorities wrote CHF 16bn of AT1 bonds to zero while shareholders were paid. The mechanical trigger never fired — a regulator's judgement did.
Read the written version →A fund run by Nobel laureates hit 250:1 leverage and lost $4.6bn in five weeks. The risk model that missed it still runs — inside your broker's margin system.
One was a 158-year-old Wall Street bank. One was a crypto exchange in the Bahamas. Both had clean audit opinions on the books the day they collapsed.
One banned trader built $160bn of invisible exposure using a derivative. The same instrument sits inside synthetic ETFs — including, possibly, one you own.
UK pension funds faced £70bn of margin calls in days — not from crypto, but from government bonds. The risk that did it is inside your bond ETF right now.
Swiss authorities wrote CHF 16bn of AT1 bonds to zero while shareholders were paid. Here is the clause that allowed it — and how to check if your ETF holds them.