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Credit spread

Every bond yield is a stack. At the bottom sits the risk-free rate — what the government pays. On top sits the credit spread — what this particular borrower pays extra, because it might not pay at all. Reading the stack separately is the skill: the bottom layer moves with central banks and inflation, the top layer with the borrower’s health and the market’s mood.

Two practical uses follow. First, as a value check: when spreads are historically tight, you are taking real default risk while barely being compensated for it — the risk has not left, only the payment for it. The corporate-bond section of the article below shows what that looks like in practice.

Second, as a stress gauge. Aggregate spread indices — investment grade, high yield — are published freely, and they behave like a nervous system for the credit market: sustained widening signals funding stress long before it reaches the evening news. In the Credit Suisse run-up, the bank’s own credit pricing was flashing weeks before the weekend that ended it.

One caution: spreads compensate for average default experience across many issuers. For any single bond, the exact legal wording of your claim — seniority, triggers, jurisdiction — can matter more than the spread ever did.