LTCM Explained: The Nobel Prize Hedge Fund Collapse
Philipp 12:32 Episode 1 of When Finance Breaks
LTCM Explained: The Nobel Prize Hedge Fund Collapse
Two Nobel laureates, a flawless model, and a fund that lost 90% in four months. What LTCM teaches about the tail risk no model can price.
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LTCM: How Two Nobel Laureates Nearly Broke the System
Long-Term Capital Management did not fail because its mathematics were wrong. The maths was correct; the assumption underneath was not. Value at Risk treats markets as a bell curve and assumes you can always sell — and it does the opposite of what a risk model should: in calm markets it says risk is low, so everyone borrows more, and the moment a shock lands it screams SELL at every institution simultaneously. The model does not prevent the crash. It manufactures it. The same model type sets the margin requirements in your broker's app today.
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